Buying Yes vs Selling No

On Kalshi, there's a fundamental truth that might surprise some new traders: there's no inherent difference between buying a Yes contract and selling a No contract, or vice versa. Our backend system treats these two actions as essentially the same thing. Let's break it down:

• Market Equilibrium: Each Kalshi market is designed to maintain a state of equilibrium. This means that the combined value of all Yes and No contracts for a given market always equals $1.

• Interconnected Trades: When you buy a Yes contract, you're essentially betting on the event occurring. Selling a No contract is equivalent to betting on the event happening (you are short on the event not happening). Both actions have the same impact on the market's equilibrium.

• No Preferential Treatment: Kalshi's system doesn't favor one side over the other. Whether you're bullish or bearish on a particular outcome, your trade has the same effect on the market's dynamics.

So, why does it matter?

While the underlying mechanics are the same, the choice between buying Yes or selling No can be a matter of personal preference or trading strategy. Some traders may find it more intuitive to think in terms of buying a Yes contract, while others may prefer the mindset of selling a No contract. Ultimately, the key is to understand the market dynamics and make trades that align with your beliefs and risk tolerance.

Still need help?

If you still need help, please contact Kalshi support here. We have a small but mighty team ready to help you out with any issues or questions you might have. All of the Kalshi support team is US-based and human.