Weather Markets

How do weather markets work?

Kalshi offers a great diversity of weather related markets that allow users to trade contracts based on the temperature movements or precipitation amounts within a city, such as New York or Austin. Traders may speculate on the highest temperature or temperature range. All weather market contracts are settled by the final report produced from the NWS the following morning.

Monitoring the markets

Please be advised to review previous temperature data for the day to gain an understanding of weather patterns. Although the market's determination relies on the finalized report from the National Weather Service (NWS), traders are encouraged to utilize a broad range of data streams to guide their decision-making. This should include leveraging other preliminary reports provided by the NWS, as well as data from additional meteorological sources. By analyzing a diverse set of data, traders can make more informed trades and take advantage of opportunities.

It's important to understand that not all weather data is the same. As mentioned on the market pages and again in the rules, the contracts are settled as reported by the National Weather Service's Daily Climate Report. While looking at the weather on another source may help guide your decision, it’s important to remember that the market settles based on the NWS Daily Climate Report data, not on a source like AccuWeather (iOS Weather App) or Google (Android Weather App).

Finding Kalshi market's relevant source information

Here is an example of a weather market and how to find the relevant outcome (high temp). This example is for Mar 17, 2025 which was 59 degrees F. Above, you can see the Kalshi market and its determined outcome. Below, is the source data from the outcome verification source (linked in market rules).

*Make sure you are viewing the temperature from the same date as the Kalshi market.

Still need help?

If you still need help, please contact Kalshi support here. We have a small but mighty team ready to help you out with any issues or questions you might have. All of the Kalshi support team is US-based and human.