Weather Markets
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Last updated
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Kalshi offers a wide variety of weather-related markets that allow users to trade contracts based on temperature movements or precipitation amounts in specific cities, from New York City to Los Angeles. Traders can speculate on whether a city will reach a certain high temperature or fall within a particular range. All weather market contracts settle based on the final climate report issued by the National Weather Service (NWS), typically released the following morning.
Kalshi creates a prediction market around a specific temperature threshold for a given location. For example: “Highest temperature in Chicago on April 15, 2025?”
Contract prices for temperature ranges may shift as new weather data (e.g., forecasts, model runs, satellite images, observations) becomes available.
The next morning, the market settles based on the high temperature recorded in the final NWS Daily Climate Report. Market determination may be delayed in the rare instances of a) a high temperature is not consistent with 6-hr or 24-hr highs reported by METAR or b) the final NWS Climate Report high temperature value is lower than previous preliminary report.
The NWS Climate Reports use local standard time when reporting daily high temperatures. This means that during Daylight Saving Time, the high temperature will be recorded between 1:00 AM and 12:59 AM local time the following day — not based on the standard midnight-to-midnight range.
Here is an example of a weather market and how to find the relevant outcome (high temp). This example is for Mar 17, 2025 which was 59 degrees F. Above, you can see the Kalshi market and its determined outcome. Below, is the source data from the outcome verification source (linked in market rules).
If you still need help, please contact Kalshi support . We have a small but mighty team ready to help you out with any issues or questions you might have. All of the Kalshi support team is US-based and human.
