Kalshi offers a wide variety of weather-related markets that allow users to trade contracts based on temperature movements or precipitation amounts in specific cities, from New York City to Los Angeles. Traders can take positions on whether a city will reach a certain high temperature or fall within a particular range. Each weather market names its official settlement source in its market rules. Daily high/low temperature markets settle based on the final climate report issued by the National Weather Service (NWS), typically released the following morning. Hourly temperature markets settle on readings from The Weather Company. Always check the specific market’s rules for its source.

Kalshi creates a prediction market around a specific temperature threshold for a given location. For example: “Highest temperature in Chicago on April 15, 2025?”
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Contract prices for temperature ranges may shift as new weather data (e.g., forecasts, model runs, satellite images, observations) becomes available.

Daily weather markets are typically ranges: contracts resolve on the day’s highest (or lowest) temperature at the listed station, offered as a set of temperature ranges plus “or above” / “or below” levels.
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These markets settle the next morning based on the high temperature recorded in the final NWS Daily Climate Report. Market determination may be delayed in the rare instances of a) a high temperature is not consistent with 6-hr or 24-hr highs reported by METAR or b) the final NWS Climate Report high temperature value is lower than previous preliminary report.
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Some temperature markets are hourly - the market title names an exact time, for example “Chicago temperature at 5 PM EDT.” These markets are also directional: each contract resolves on whether the temperature at that time is above or below a specific level, rather than within a range. They settle on the temperature at that exact time as reported by The Weather Company for the station coordinates named in the market rules (for example, KORD for Chicago).
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For these markets, The Weather Company’s reported value is official and final. NWS Climatological Reports, Google Weather, and other services may be useful references, but they are not authoritative for settlement. Preliminary Weather Company readings may differ from the final reported value due to rounding and conversion, so use caution when interpreting preliminary readings.
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Settlement processes approximately 25-35 minutes after the market closes to ensure accurate data retrieval from the official source - a short delay after close is normal. Historical readings and market data are available at weather.com/kalshi.
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The NWS Climate Reports (used for daily temperature markets) use local standard time when reporting daily high temperatures. This means that during Daylight Saving Time, the high temperature will be recorded between 1:00 AM and 12:59 AM local time the following day - not based on the standard midnight-to-midnight range.

Kalshi market for highest temp in NYC on March 17th, 2025.

Here is an example of a weather market and how to find the relevant outcome (high temp). This example is for Mar 17, 2025 which was 59 degrees F. Above, you can see the Kalshi market and its determined outcome. Below, is the source data from the outcome verification source (linked in market rules).

*Make sure you are viewing the temperature from the same date as the Kalshi market.
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For hourly temperature markets, the outcome source data is available at weather.com/kalshi.