What are protected markets?
Protected markets are versions of select NFL player markets that include an early exit payout. If the player participates in at least one play in the first half but doesn't participate in any play in the second half or overtime, and hasn't already reached the market's target, a protected market settles at the fair price prior to the opening kickoff instead of on the player's final statistics.
Protection only applies to positions in a protected market, and it has to be turned on before the game starts. Standard NFL player markets don't include protection, even if the player is injured during the game.
This article covers NFL player markets only. Player markets in other sports, such as baseball, basketball, hockey and soccer, don't currently have a protected version, and each follows its own participation rules, which are listed on the market page.
Which markets can be protected?
Protection is available on select NFL player markets when you build a combo in the Kalshi mobile app. If your combo includes a pick that can be protected, you can turn on protection in the Combo builder.
You can only add protection to Yes picks with a minimum target, such as 1+ touchdowns. Availability varies by game and market.
Team defense and special teams touchdown markets settle on actual touchdowns, even if the market title says (Protected). Protection can't be turned on for them in the Combo builder.
How do I add protection to a combo?
Open the Combo builder and add your picks before the game starts.
If any of your picks can be protected, a protection toggle with a shield icon shows how many eligible markets your combo has, for example 2 eligible markets.
Turn the toggle on to protect every eligible pick. The label changes to show how many markets are protected, for example 2 protected markets. Tap it to see which picks are protected.
Turning on protection in the Combo builder protects both touchdown picks and updates the combo's price and payout.
Illustrative players and market data. Your prices and payouts may differ.
Protected picks show a shield icon on your combo in the Combo builder and in your portfolio. You can only add protection to Yes picks, and only before the game starts.
The app remembers your choice for future combos until you turn it off. Check for the shield on each pick before you place your combo.
Protected markets are separate markets with their own prices. Their prices can differ from, and are usually higher than, the standard version of the same market, so turning protection on can change your combo's price and potential payout.
How can I tell if my position is protected?
Whether a pick is protected depends on the market your order was placed in. In the Kalshi mobile app, protected picks show a shield icon on your combo in the Combo builder, in your portfolio and on your order confirmation. Tap the shield to see which picks are protected.
Protection can't be added to a position after you trade. Protected and standard markets are separate markets, so turning protection on for a new combo doesn't change combos you've already placed.
How does a protected market settle?
A protected NFL player market settles based on the player's participation and statistics:
If the player participates in at least one play in the second half or overtime, a protected market settles on the player's actual statistics.
If the player participates only in the first half and has already reached the target, a protected market settles on the player's actual statistics.
If the player participates only in the first half and hasn't reached the target, a protected market settles at the fair price prior to the opening kickoff.
If the player never participates in a play, a protected market settles at the fair price, the same as a standard market.
For a protected market, an injury, an injury designation, or being ruled out isn't required for protection to apply. A play that is called back by a penalty still counts as participating. Lining up for a play that is stopped by a penalty before the snap doesn't count, unless the player participates in a later play. Protection applies only if at least one play is run after halftime. If a game is suspended, cancelled or not completed, the game status rules in the contract terms apply instead.
What is the fair price?
For a protected NFL player market, the fair price is the last fair price prior to the opening kickoff, as determined by Kalshi. It isn't based on the price you paid and may differ from the market's last traded price.
When a market settles at its fair price:
Yes holders receive the fair price per contract.
No holders receive $1.00 minus the fair price per contract.
For example, if the fair price is $0.40, each Yes contract pays $0.40 and each No contract pays $0.60.
The fair price isn't based on the price you paid. Depending on when and at what price you traded, your payout per contract can be higher or lower than your cost.
How does a protected pick affect my combo?
If a protected pick settles at its fair price and none of your other picks is incorrect, your combo doesn't settle at $0 because of that pick. Instead, the combo settles at a fair price determined by Kalshi, which takes into account the protected pick's fair price and the results of your other picks.
Protection only applies to picks that were protected when you placed the combo. Standard picks in your combo settle under their own market's rules. If any other pick in your combo is incorrect, the combo pays $0. See Combos for more on how combos settle.
When do protected markets settle?
A protected market can settle later than the standard version of the same market. If any pick in your combo is incorrect, the combo can settle at $0 right away, even if a protected pick hasn't settled yet. Otherwise, a combo settles after all of its picks have settled.
In the Kalshi mobile app, a protected pick that settles at its fair price shows a blue arrow in your portfolio instead of a check mark or an X.
My NFL player was injured. Will my market be voided or refunded?
It depends on whether your position was in a protected market. In the Kalshi mobile app, protected picks show a shield icon.
Standard NFL player market: once the player takes at least one snap, the market settles on the player's actual statistics, even if the player is injured and doesn't return. If the player is active but never takes a snap, it settles at the fair price before game start.
Protected NFL player market: if the player participated in at least one play in the first half, didn't participate in any play in the second half or overtime and hadn't reached the target, the market settles at the fair price prior to the opening kickoff. Otherwise it settles on the player's actual statistics. Protection applies only if at least one play is run after halftime.
Either way, the market settles according to its rules and isn't voided. Protection can't be added to a position after you trade, so if you'd like protection, turn it on in the Combo builder before the game starts.
Player markets in other sports follow their own participation rules, which are listed on the market page.
Where can I find the full rules?
Each market's rules are on its market page. Full details are in the contract terms for protected NFL player markets. If anything in this article differs from a market's rules or the Kalshi Rulebook, the rules govern.